India and China Step Back from Border War, But Why Now?

The agreement allows the resumption of patrols along the disputed border in the Ladakh region, easing tensions before the BRICS summit. But experts caution against concluding a deeper thaw in ties.

According to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, India and China have reached an agreement on military patrols along their contested Himalayan border, which may help resolve a conflict that started in 2020.

Indian and Chinese officials have been in frequent communication for the past few weeks, discussing patrolling arrangements along the India-China border. This has led to an agreement on resolving issues that arose in 2020, as stated by Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri in New Delhi.

Despite the ongoing larger border dispute, the agreement permits soldiers from both countries to resume patrols in the Ladakh region, enabling them to emphasize their territorial claims and monitor the adherence to the agreement made on Monday.

The declaration was issued just before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to Kazan in Russia for the BRICS summit, where China is also involved.

Analysts say the agreement will lead to better political and business relationships between the Asian countries. It might also pave the way for a possible encounter between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first one since 2020.

The agreement has not been made public, and few details are known.

Vikram Misri, the Foreign Secretary of India, mentioned that the agreement is focused on the withdrawal of soldiers at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), marking the boundary between Chinese and Indian territories. The Line of Actual Control extends from Ladakh in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in India’s east, with some areas also being claimed by China. It covers a distance of 3,488km (2,167 miles). The LAC separates zones of physical control instead of territorial ownership, as its name implies.

Misri did not clarify if the agreement would result in the removal of the numerous extra troops deployed by both nations in Ladakh.

On Tuesday, China confirmed the agreement regarding military patrols along the border, without specifying if it applied to the entire border or only specific conflict areas.

According to a senior military official speaking to Reuters, both parties will slightly withdraw their troops from current locations to prevent confrontations, while still being permitted to conduct patrols based on a developing schedule. He stated that holding monthly review meetings and consistently monitoring the disputed areas by both nations would prevent any breaches.

Manoj Joshi, who works as an analyst at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, mentioned to Al Jazeera that the limited information given by authorities indicates that discussions may still be happening.

He stated that having a publicised formal agreement could provide more clarity on future events.

He mentioned that there are still numerous unanswered questions, such as the possible elimination of the “buffer” zones established along the LAC where both sides are not allowed to patrol.

What led us to this point?
For seventy years, India and China have been in conflict over their border.

In 1962, a short and violent conflict arose between the two nations regarding the delineation of their borders. India faced a humiliating loss and ceded some land in Aksai Chin, located in the far northeast of Ladakh, which has been a source of dispute between the two nations.

Diplomatic ties improved following a string of border accords during the 1990s. Although the 1993 and 1996 agreements are seen as important achievements, the border agreement between India and China, which prevented casualties along the border for over 50 years after 1962, has faced growing challenges in recent times.

Their military forces clashed in minor skirmishes in 2013, 2014, and 2017, the latter of which occurred during Xi’s trip to India. In 2019, India annulled Article 370 of its constitution, providing a level of self-governance to Indian-controlled Kashmir, which encompassed Ladakh, a region under dispute. China viewed India’s action as impacting its territory without consultation and criticized it at the United Nations Security Council.

However, the confrontation in 2020 led to a breaking point in the relationship due to the resulting deaths.

Michael Kugelman, who is the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, DC, mentioned that while this week’s agreement is important, it should not be exaggerated in terms of significance.

“It doesn’t resolve the border conflict,” Kugelman informed Al Jazeera. “This agreement will enable a return to the previous state of affairs in Ladakh before the crisis occurred.”

Kugelman stated that there is no indication for withdrawal of troops from the areas where mobilizations occurred during the Ladakh crisis. “We must exercise caution regarding this new agreement.”

What have been key moments in the India-China relationship since 2020?

In June 2020, in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh, there were twenty Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers who lost their lives in physical combat using clubs and sticks, marking the first fatal confrontations in almost six decades. The fatalities caused anger and demonstrations in the streets of India. The increased tensions between the two countries possessing nuclear weapons raised worries globally, as the UN called on both sides to use caution. New Delhi imposed limitations on investments from China, prohibited numerous popular Chinese mobile apps like TikTok, and terminated direct flights. The tally of prohibited Chinese applications reached 321 in the end.

In January 2021, Indian and Chinese troops had a small clash along their border in the northeastern Indian state of Sikkim, according to the Indian army.

In December 2022, there were small clashes at the border in the Tawang area of Arunachal Pradesh, a state in northeastern India that China also claims. Beijing blamed Indian forces for blocking a regular patrol, while New Delhi accused Chinese soldiers of entering Indian territory and attempting to “alter the current situation”.

In August 2023, Modi and Xi decided to increase their efforts to pull back and reduce tensions during a brief meeting at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

June: During the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan, Jaishankar engaged in discussions with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to increase dialogue in order to address border issues.

In September, Jaishankar stated that around 75 percent of the issues regarding “disengagement” at the India-China border had been addressed.

CONTEXT OF THE DEAL

A final solution to the China-India border conflict is still not within reach, however, both nations are indicating a willingness to start fresh.

Kugelman mentioned that the two nuclear states have been in discussions about the border problem ever since the confrontation in 2020.

What is the reason for revealing the agreement at this moment? Kugelman stated. “The upcoming BRICS summit is highly anticipated here.”

The analyst stated that the agreement of the deal before the BRICS summit commenced on Tuesday will allow India to schedule a meeting between Modi and Xi on the sidelines of the summit. “From a political standpoint, New Delhi finds it easier to accept such a meeting due to the existence of a border agreement.”

Business connections were probably a significant motivation. China has been one of India’s leading trading partners alongside the United States for a considerable time. India’s largest trading partner in 2023 and 2024 was recorded as having $118.4 billion in bilateral trade.

Beijing continues to be India’s primary provider of goods, including telecommunications hardware and raw materials for the pharmaceutical industry, while also serving as the largest supplier of industrial products.

Reducing tensions is also advantageous for China as it works towards increasing its global influence by participating in various multilateral platforms, such as BRICS. Several Chinese firms faced challenges operating in India post-2020 due to stricter investment regulations and the prohibition of popular Chinese apps, and are now anticipating a revival of relations.

Joshi, who works at the Observer Research Foundation and wrote Understanding the India-China Border, stated that influence from the Indian business sector contributed to the agreement on the border.

He mentioned that India implemented strict limitations on Chinese investments and visas after the incidents in 2020. There was Indian pressure for a reset of the relations.

Kugelman, on the other hand, sounded a more reserved tone. He stated that he does not believe this agreement will lead to a wider peace agreement due to numerous geopolitical conflicts, such as China’s expanding naval activities in the Indian Ocean, its close connections with Pakistan, and India’s strong alliance with the United States.

Kugelman stated that the agreement serves as a positive method to build trust in relations that had deteriorated in recent years; however, he does not believe it should be viewed as the first step in broader efforts to improve the relationship.